How exactly to Bet Parlays in Sports

The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.

Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they are not. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, but they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less probability of collecting.

A parlay is not a single bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?

A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't need to be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.

As with every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.

I knew one bookmaker who was taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.

Initially, this appeared to be a great opportunity for the book. The normal coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. As far as  trang chủ tdtc  was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after six months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.

The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of every parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.

Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The initial half of among the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the overall game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.

Before you rush out to use this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to enable you to parlay first half to game. If they do let you do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will be taken to the cleaners.

You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the medial side and total in exactly the same game.

Any game where the total is less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with very little increase in risk. This type of bet, however, needed that you have an opinion privately or the total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or even to create a potential win should you have no opinion.

There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).

In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia covers the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the game will go over the total. The more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the overall game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is less likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Therefore, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.

When you have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.

The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.

Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the full total in exactly the same game, because increasingly more are realizing that these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you should consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.

If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.