How to Bet Parlays in Sports

The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.

Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you once you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.

A parlay is not a single bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you would still make the bet?

A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon if the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting that doesn't must be there. The skilled handicapper is always seeking to make smart investments. He tries to eliminate the effect of luck to the best extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.

Much like every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.

I knew one bookmaker who was taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the game, and the under in the initial half with under in the game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.

At first glance, this appeared to be a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out from the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.

The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the initial half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.

Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. At the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the first half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the overall game were not 50-50 but better than 99% and only the "over." The player only had a need to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.

Before you rush out to use this, remember that most off-shore books are much too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. If they do permit you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will soon be taken to the cleaners.

There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the medial side and total in exactly the same game.

Any game where the total is less than double the spread can give you an advantage in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game.  You can find out more 've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with very little increase in risk. Such a bet, however, required that you have an opinion on the side or the total. Parlaying is another method to increase your potential win on these games, or even to develop a potential win when you have no opinion.

You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).

In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia will cover the 25 points, they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the game will go over the full total. The more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will review. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, in that case your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is less likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Therefore, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.

For those who have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.

The closer the posted total is to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.

Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the side to the total in exactly the same game, because an increasing number of are realizing that these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you should consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.

If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.