How to Bet Parlays in Sports

The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.

Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a more impressive advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, but they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher probability of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less possibility of collecting.

A parlay is not an individual bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?

A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon if the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting it doesn't must be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. He tries to remove the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.

Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.

I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.

At first glance, this were a great chance of the book. The normal coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book began to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.

The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.

Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. By the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For  MB66  to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the game were not 50-50 but better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.

Before you rush out to use this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. If they do enable you to do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will soon be taken up to the cleaners.

There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the medial side and total in exactly the same game.

Any game in which the total is significantly less than double the spread can give you an edge in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with very little increase in risk. Such a bet, however, needed that you have an opinion privately or the full total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or even to create a potential win for those who have no opinion.

You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).

In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia will cover the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the overall game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is less likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Subsequently, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.

Should you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.

The closer the posted total is to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.

Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the side to the total in the same game, because progressively more are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets for you to consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.

If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.