Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates much like probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you are in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. A lot of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps which might be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome over time.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. vn88 studio tend to be more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. It is because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For instance, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will assist you in the long term. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 as well as 10. The difference between the house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.