Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates much like many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some kind of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. Plenty of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the back wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. There are also steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go back home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. This is due to most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For instance, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because the amount of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help in the long term. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. Invest the a glance at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points lower than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. thabet center can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.