Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to one of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some kind of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you are in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. Many table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps that could be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. This is due to most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For example, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that may help you in the end. First of all, the best value of most parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a glance at the graph you need to understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 and even 10. The difference between the house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points lower than all three of these bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In 55g , every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.